On July 15, the Ministry of Water Resources organized a special consultation meeting to analyze and assess the national flood and drought situation during the critical flood-control period of "late July and early August," and to deploy flood and drought disaster prevention work in a targeted manner basin by basin. July 16 to August 15 is the critical flood-control period known as "late July and early August", generally the time when the risk of flood disasters is highest and the defense situation is most severe. So how should the Yangtze River Basin respond to "late July and early August" in 2025?

     The overall flood-control situation is controllable.From late June to early July, areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River successively "exited the plum rain season", and inflows to Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake (the "Two Lakes") continued to recede. The current water levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the "Two Lakes" still have about 40 billion cubic meters of channel storage capacity before reaching warning levels. In addition, the basin's reservoir groups have about 70 billion cubic meters of flood-regulation storage capacity "standing ready." Ample flood-storage space combined with forecasts of below-normal rainfall makes the probability extremely low of a basin-wide major flood similar to 2020 or a regional flood in the middle and lower reaches similar to 2024. However, with extreme weather events occurring frequently in recent years, the flood risk caused by localized heavy rainfall from typhoons penetrating deep into the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River still cannot be ignored.

     Pressure to combat drought and ensure water supply is enormous.The latest forecasts show that during the critical "late July and early August" period, precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin will generally be below normal, especially in the eastern part of the upper Yangtze River and the main stream of the middle and lower Yangtze River and areas to its north. Below-normal rainfall combined with high-temperature evaporation is expected to cause water levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the "Two Lakes" to "keep falling." Under the "roasting" test of high temperatures, drought is likely to occur in the main stream of the middle Yangtze River and the middle and lower reaches of the Han River, making the task of ensuring water supply, irrigation, power generation, and other livelihood water demands arduous.

     Facing the situation of "intertwined drought and flood, with drought outweighing flood," the Changjiang Water Resources Commission will, in accordance with the Ministry of Water Resources' consultation deployment, anchor the goals of "no casualties, no dam failures, no breaches of important dikes, no impact on important infrastructure" and ensure the safety of water supply for urban and rural residents, the seasonal irrigation water needs of crops in irrigation districts, and the water safety of large-scale aquaculture. It will prepare all preventive and response measures in advance in an all-encompassing, meticulous, solid, and strict manner, and take multiple measures to meet the critical defense period of "late July and early August":