According to this year's statistical information release schedule, today (October 18), the National Bureau of Statistics will release third-quarter economic data including GDP. Multiple institutions predict that Q3 GDP growth will rebound from the 7.5% level in Q2, reaching approximately 7.7%.

　　Wang Tao, Chief China Economist at UBS Securities, told reporters that the upcoming September data will show that real economic activity remains strong, although the month-on-month growth momentum may have softened slightly.

　　Some previously released data were very encouraging. In September, China's official PMI was 51.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from August and rising for three consecutive months. Meanwhile, the final HSBC PMI for September also rose for the second consecutive month.

　　Zhu Jianfang, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, said that in the third quarter of this year, under the effect of pro-growth policies, demand recovered somewhat, which drove an industrial rebound, with the secondary industry rebounding notably. As the real estate market remained relatively stable and due to policies controlling "three public" consumption, growth in the tertiary industry remained relatively moderate. Q3 GDP growth is expected to be 7.7%.

　　Yang Weixiao, macro analyst at Lianxun Securities, believes that Q3 GDP may reach 7.9%.

　　Looking ahead to future policy direction, the report believes that, absent macro policy stimulus, domestic demand is currently recovering gradually. The government has indicated that it will not stimulate economic growth in order to achieve its set targets. Maintaining the status quo is the best policy response at present.

　　Judging solely by the factors affecting economic growth, liquidity remains relatively reassuring.

　　After the surge in interbank market interest rates in June and the marked slowdown in credit expansion in June and July, credit growth has rebounded strongly recently. New RMB loans in September were 787 billion yuan, higher than the scale of new loans in July and August. Since the beginning of the year, total new RMB loans have reached 7.28 trillion yuan.

　　Wang Tao said that in the coming months the government may take a moderate attitude toward credit growth. As a result, growth in RMB loans and total social financing may exceed previous forecasts and provide more support for economic growth in the next one to two quarters. This may help ensure that full-year economic growth exceeds this year's growth floor amid uncertainty in exports.