Refined Oil Prices Face Adjustment Window Today

　　According to the new refined oil pricing mechanism implemented from March 27, refined oil prices are adjusted every 10 working days. However, when the increase or decrease in gasoline and diesel prices is less than 50 yuan per ton, equivalent to less than 5 cents per liter, retail prices will not be adjusted temporarily to save social costs, and the adjustment will be accumulated or offset in the next price adjustment.

　　In the previous adjustment window on August 30, domestic oil prices were raised, with gasoline and diesel prices increased by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton respectively, equivalent to retail prices of No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel (national average) increasing by 0.17 yuan and 0.19 yuan per liter respectively. According to the principle of “adjusting once every ten working days”, refined oil prices usher in a new adjustment window today.

　　In this pricing cycle, affected by the situation in Syria which first tightened and then eased, international oil prices first rose and then fell. Analytical institutions predict that although international oil prices have fallen sharply in the past two days, the decline is not enough to reverse the upward trend of this round of refined oil price adjustment. There is a consensus expectation that oil prices will rise this time.

　　"Three Consecutive Increases" in Oil Prices Almost Certain

　　According to calculations by Jinyindao, a bulk commodity e-commerce platform, as of the ninth working day on September 12, the average price of reference crude oil varieties (WTI, Brent, Brent Dtd, Dubai, ESPO) was $112.528 per barrel, with a crude oil change rate of 1.79%. Han Jingyuan, an analyst at Jinyindao's refined oil market, said that the refined oil price adjustment window opens today, and the corresponding increase for gasoline and diesel is 90-110 yuan/ton. Converted to per-liter prices, gasoline will increase by 6-7 cents per liter, and diesel by about 8-9 cents per liter.

　　Chen Qing, a crude oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that this round of refined oil price increase is almost certain, and the increase is expected to narrow to about 100 yuan/ton due to the recent decline in international oil prices, equivalent to 0.08 yuan/liter for No. 93 gasoline and 0.09 yuan/liter for No. 0 diesel. Chen Qing pointed out that if this round of refined oil price increase is confirmed, it will be the first “three consecutive increases” of refined oil under the new mechanism.

　　Wang Jintao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, also believes that domestic oil prices are likely to usher in the first “three consecutive increases” since the implementation of the new mechanism. However, due to the impact of the recent decline in international oil prices, the domestic oil price increase may narrow to less than 100 yuan per ton.

　　It should be noted that since mid-July, domestic refined oil prices have been raised twice in a row. On July 20, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 325 yuan and 310 yuan per ton respectively, and on August 31, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton respectively.

　　It is understood that the National Development and Reform Commission will announce the final information on this oil price adjustment this afternoon. According to regulations, on each price adjustment day, when refined oil prices need to be adjusted, the adjustment notice will be published around 17:00; when the adjustment amount is less than 50 yuan and prices are temporarily not adjusted, information will be released around 15:00 on the adjustment day.