Market expectations for an infrastructure investment rebound in 2019 are gradually heating up. Whether funding is sufficient may remain the main constraint on the magnitude of the rebound. First, it must be clarified that within the sources of infrastructure investment funding, narrow fiscal expenditure accounts for no more than 20%; changes in self-raised funds are the key determinant of infrastructure investment funding. Self-raised funds mainly come from government special bonds, other local government fund expenditures, and bond financing and non-standard financing by government financing platforms. Monitoring changes in these sources is the focus for judging the sources of infrastructure investment funding.

　　Special bonds provide support, and infrastructure investment rebounds slightly. Funding from urban investment platforms may still decline by 1.2 trillion yuan compared with 2018. Looking ahead to 2019, non-standard financing by urban investment companies will continue to shrink, but the reduction will not expand further, while the expansion of other financing channels for urban investment companies will be limited. It is worth noting that a sharp decline in the scale of replacement bonds in 2019 will constrain the room for urban investment companies to maneuver in borrowing. Therefore, financing by urban investment platforms will remain the main drag on infrastructure investment in 2019. The increase in budgetary funds will be limited, and other government fund expenditures will decline. With large-scale tax and fee cuts in 2019, fiscal expenditure growth will also be unlikely to increase significantly; tight real estate funding will drag down government fund revenue, leading to a slight decline in other government fund expenditures. Government special bonds will expand, and PPP projects will accelerate. The Central Economic Work Conference in December mentioned a "relatively large increase in special bonds," and the overall issuance scale this year is expected to exceed 2.2 trillion yuan, while the expansion of PPP project investment will also drive a rebound in bank loan growth. If it is assumed that the remaining funding sources mainly increase steadily at historical growth rates, then for the old-caliber infrastructure investment growth rate to rebound to 5% in 2019, there would still be a funding gap of about 1 trillion yuan, which may be filled in the future by further expanding special bonds or increasing policy bank loans.

　　New infrastructure construction deserves the most attention. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed increasing efforts to shore up weak links in infrastructure and set out three main directions for infrastructure investment: accelerating the pace of 5G commercialization, strengthening new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, the industrial internet, and the Internet of Things, and increasing investment in intercity transportation, logistics, municipal infrastructure, and other areas, as well as shoring up weak links in rural infrastructure and public service facilities. New infrastructure is an extension of traditional infrastructure and serves the dual tasks of stabilizing growth and promoting innovation. Historically, the emergence of new growth has been inseparable from the improvement of related infrastructure. In 1993, the United States proposed the "National Information Infrastructure (NII) Plan," which promoted the development of the U.S. information industry, and the spread of broadband laid the foundation for the prosperity of the U.S. internet in the 1990s. The continuous upgrading of China's mobile communications facilities has also laid a solid foundation for the prosperity of the mobile internet, and the development of the mobile internet has created diverse business models and become an important part of the innovation-driven economy. New infrastructure drives equipment demand and supports the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing. The construction of new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, the industrial internet, and the Internet of Things will drive product demand in related industries such as communications, computers, and electronics. Such new infrastructure is also key to the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing and can stimulate more new demand. Although these may not be realized immediately in the short term, proposing to strengthen new infrastructure construction reflects China's advance planning. China has a relatively complete manufacturing industrial chain and a huge domestic demand market, and investment in the construction of these facilities can help China become a leader in the field of intelligent manufacturing in the future.