在上一轮国内油价上调后，国际油价先是经历了一轮下调，随后开始了一轮反弹。中宇资讯原油分析师路伟才指出，7月2日WTI(美国西德克萨斯轻质原油)收涨1.61美元，涨至九个月以来最高位，布伦特原油期货也强劲反弹。不过中宇资讯检测数据显示，原油现货均价仍低于基准价1.968美元/桶，因此估测本轮成品油零售价调整趋势为下调，调价幅度为80元/吨，约合每升下调7分钱左右。
另一家市场机构金银岛则预测称，近期国际油价收盘呈现连日上扬，受此影响原油变化率在负向区间表现出收窄，据金银岛测算，截至7月3日第8个工作日，参考原油品种均价100.446，变化率为-1.6%，较前一交易日，原油变化率跌幅缩小。因此，金银岛预计本轮调价窗口会因为幅度不足每吨50元而不调整。
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