A document leaked on the evening of the 1st from the Trump administration states that the US is not bound by WTO rules in trade disputes. If this statement becomes reality, it would mean that Trump's trade policy would deviate from the consistent practices of previous US presidents, marking a major shift.
CNN reported on the 2nd, citing the document: "Even if a WTO dispute settlement panel... rules against the US, such a ruling would not automatically lead to changes in US law or practice. On trade policy, the Trump administration will vigorously defend US sovereignty."
The document also acknowledges that not complying with WTO rules will come at a cost. If the US loses a WTO case to other countries but refuses to amend its laws or change its practices, then under WTO law, those countries have the right to impose trade sanctions on the US.
CNN reported that the document came from the Office of the US Trade Representative. Trump's nominee for US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, has still not been confirmed by the Senate.
【Two Contradictions】
The document also acknowledges two facts, which seem to contradict Trump's trade rhetoric.
Trump believes that bad trade deals are the main reason the US has lost millions of manufacturing jobs, and that trade deficits are detrimental to the US economy.
But the leaked document states: "Of course, growing trade deficits can be compatible with a strengthening economy."
As for the lost manufacturing jobs, labor market weakness, and sluggish economic growth, the document states that these are caused by "multiple factors, especially the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the widespread impact of automation."
CNN reported, citing multiple studies, that some research on manufacturing shows that automation has taken away far more manufacturing jobs than trade.
Roberto Azevêdo, who successfully secured a second term as WTO Director-General, warned Trump on February 28 not to start a trade war, otherwise it would bring "disastrous" consequences.
In an interview with German media, Azevêdo emphasized that trade protectionism cannot make America "great again," and Trump should not blame all the problems facing US economic development on other countries and external forces.
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