ADB Report: Asia's Annual Infrastructure Demand Expected to Reach $1.7 Trillion

2017-03-01 905 0人评论
The Asian Development Bank's latest report, titled 'Meeting Asia's Infrastructure Needs,' points out that if the Asia-Pacific region maintains its current growth momentum, its infrastructure needs by 2030 will total more than $22.6 trillion ($1.5 trillion per year). When climate change mitigation and adaptation costs are taken into account, this figure rises to $26 trillion ($1.7 trillion per year).

The report focuses on the region's energy, transport, telecommunications, water, and sanitation infrastructure. The climate-adjusted figure of $1.7 trillion per year is double the $75 billion projected in 2009. The inclusion of climate-related investment is a major factor in the doubling, but an even more important factor is the region's foreseeable sustained and rapid economic growth, which will inevitably generate new infrastructure demand. In addition, compared with 2009, the number of ADB member economies covered by the report has risen from 32 to 45, and there are also differences between 2015 and 2008 price levels.

In recent decades, infrastructure development in the 45 countries covered by the report has made rapid progress—economic growth has been swift, poverty has declined, and people's living standards have improved markedly. However, significant gaps in infrastructure remain. More than 400 million people still lack access to electricity, 300 million people lack access to safe drinking water, and about 1.5 billion people lack access to basic sanitation. Many economies are unable to achieve efficient connectivity with broader domestic and international markets due to insufficient ports, railways, and roads.

The report says that of the total investment needed from 2016 to 2030 to address climate change, power investment will be $14.7 trillion, transport investment $8.4 trillion, telecommunications investment $2.3 trillion, and water and sanitation spending will require $800 billion.

By 2030, East Asia will account for 61% of the region's total climate-adjusted investment needs. Measured as a percentage of GDP, the Pacific leads all other subregions, with its required investment accounting for 9.1% of its GDP. South Asia's required investment accounts for 8.8% of GDP, Central Asia 7.8%, Southeast Asia 5.7%, and East Asia 5.2%.

At present, infrastructure investment in the region is estimated at $881 billion per year, and the infrastructure investment gap—the difference between investment needs and current investment levels—is equivalent to 2.4% of projected GDP over the five years from 2016 to 2020. When climate change is taken into account, China's infrastructure investment gap accounts for 1.2% of GDP, while the infrastructure investment gap of the remaining 24 economies accounts for as much as 5% of projected GDP.

The report believes that additional revenue generated by public finance reform is expected to fill 40% of the investment gap for the 24 economies (that is, 2% of GDP). If the private sector is relied upon to fill the remaining gap (3% of GDP), infrastructure investment during 2016-2020 will need to rise from the current $63 billion per year to $250 billion.

Multilateral development banks have provided about 2.5% of the financing for infrastructure development in developing Asia. Excluding China and India, the contribution rate of multilateral development banks is as high as 10%. In addition to providing financial support, ADB also plays an important role in identifying, designing, and implementing high-quality projects by applying professional experience and knowledge. In addition, ADB is committed to expanding its business scale, integrating more advanced clean technologies into projects, and continuing to simplify business processes. At the same time, ADB will also focus on promoting investment-friendly policies, regulation, and institutional reform.

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