It is understood that after the Railway Corporation raised the total railway fixed asset investment to 800 billion yuan at the end of April, railway investment has now officially begun. Multiple lines including the Harbin-Jiamusi Railway, Hangzhou-Huangshan Railway, and Ejin-Hami Railway have successively started construction, and 13 more railways will start one by one in the coming months. Due to the surge in new projects, the total bidding amount for railway investment has reached 1.35 trillion yuan. Some analysts expect that even if the Railway Corporation does not continue to raise the investment plan, the total railway investment is expected to approach or exceed 1 trillion yuan within the year. This undoubtedly injects a shot in the arm for the construction machinery industry.
　　Railway investment enters intensive period
　　According to information disclosed by the Railway Corporation, on June 30, four railways in China started construction simultaneously: the Hebei-Liaoning section of the Beijing-Shenyang Passenger Dedicated Line, the Hangzhou-Huangshan Railway, the Harbin-Jiamusi Railway, and the Huaihua-Shaoyang-Hengyang Railway. Subsequently, on July 3, the civil works for the Xinjiang section of the Hami-Ejin Railway project was also announced to start at Hami East Station. In the coming months, another 13 railways will start intensively, with a total investment of about 330 billion yuan, nearly 50% of the annual railway investment plan.
　　Taking the Hami-Ejin Railway project as an example, the project has a length of 629.9 kilometers and a total investment of 9.87 billion yuan. It crosses the three provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Xinjiang, and is integrated with the Northwest, North China, and Bohai Rim railway networks. It is called another important trunk line for Xinjiang coal transport besides the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway.
　　In fact, among the above five lines that have started construction, the Hami-Ejin Railway project is not the largest railway project in terms of investment. Although the Harbin-Jiamusi Railway is only 343 kilometers long, its investment amount is as high as 34.7 billion yuan. In addition, the total investment of the Huaihua-Shaoyang-Hengyang Railway is 32.43 billion yuan, the Hangzhou-Huangshan Railway is 33.83 billion yuan, and the Beijing-Shenyang Passenger Dedicated Line is close to 130 billion yuan, with the Liaoning section alone exceeding 55 billion yuan.
　　Compared with other investment means, "railway, highway, and infrastructure" represented by railway investment is more large-scale. Wu Qing, a researcher at the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, once said that railway investment remains the preferred tool for stabilizing growth. A research report released by Essence International in early July pointed out that the newly opened railway mileage in both this year and next year should exceed 8,000 kilometers, with a total investment of 1.4 trillion yuan.
　　Li Yaming, an analyst at Sealand Securities, believes that to ensure a GDP growth rate of 7.5% this year, infrastructure investment must be increased beyond expectations, including accelerating domestic railway investment and implementing the high-speed rail export strategy, such as the Eurasian High-speed Rail, Central Asian High-speed Rail, and Pan-Asian High-speed Rail.
　　As for the source of railway investment funds, in fact, since the establishment of the Railway Corporation in March last year, the work of "separating government and enterprise" and railway reform are being deepened. Currently, measures such as establishing a railway development fund and freight rate reform will provide funding guarantees for railway investment, and railway freight rate reform is also seen as an important means for railway investment to attract private capital.
　　In February this year, the National Development and Reform Commission changed railway freight rates from government-set prices to government-guided prices, and in April again handed over the freight rates of the Zhunchi Railway to market regulation.
　　While the National Development and Reform Commission and the Railway Corporation are intensively approving and constructing railway projects, various localities are also taking multiple approaches to initiate projects and raise funds, attempting to introduce larger-scale social capital.
    　Investment amount may be raised to 1 trillion
　　At the beginning of this year, at the all-railway work conference, the Railway Corporation initially set the annual railway fixed asset investment at 630 billion yuan, and later slightly increased it to 700 billion yuan. In early April, the Railway Corporation again raised the railway fixed asset investment to 800 billion yuan, and the number of railway investment projects increased from 44 at the beginning of the year to 64.
　　Historically, railway investment climbed to a peak of 842.7 billion yuan in 2010. This year's 800 billion yuan investment is the second highest in history. Li Yaming expects that the total railway investment is very likely to be raised again to 1 trillion yuan in the second half of the year.
　　According to Li Yaming's calculations, the total railway investment increased by 62% and 69% year-on-year in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Conservatively estimated, the total railway investment this year will increase by 53% year-on-year to 1,002.7 billion yuan.
　　In fact, due to the increase in total railway investment to 800 billion yuan in the first half of the year, new projects have surged, and the total bidding amount has reached 1.35 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Railway Bureau alone bidding 239.4 billion yuan. Some analysts expect that due to the continuous participation of private capital, even if the Railway Corporation does not continue to raise the investment plan, the total railway investment is expected to approach or exceed 1 trillion yuan within the year.
　　While railway investment is rising, urban rail transit investment is also steadily climbing. Data shows that at the beginning of this year, the existing and newly started urban rail transit projects reached 300 billion yuan, while the expected investment scale for railway investment in the same period was about 700 billion yuan, with the total scale of the two exceeding 1 trillion yuan.
　　The simultaneous advancement of railway investment and urban rail transit investment has also brought infrastructure investment to a climax in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, companies such as China Railway Construction and China Railway Group obtained considerable orders in railway construction and urban rail transit. For example, China Railway Fourth Bureau Group, a subsidiary of China Railway Group, won the bid in June for the post-station project of the second line (Shanghai Railway Bureau section) of the Xi'an-Hefei section of the Nanjing-Xi'an Railway, and another subsidiary, China Railway Fifth Bureau Group, won the bid for the civil construction project of the first phase of Changsha Rail Transit Line 3. With the arrival of the railway investment peak, the demand for new equipment such as EMUs will reach a historical high in both this year and next.
　　Construction machinery industry expected to recover
　　The implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand is the main driving force for the growth of fixed asset investment in China. It is expected that with the further implementation of various policies, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will further accelerate.
　　From the industry perspective, construction machinery is indispensable construction equipment for infrastructure, urban rail transit, and other projects, mainly including excavating machinery, lifting machinery, concrete machinery, piling machinery, tunnel machinery, etc. In urban rail transit, rotary drilling rigs in piling machinery, excavators in earthmoving machinery, pump trucks and cranes in concrete machinery, etc. will be the direct beneficiaries of this urban rail transit construction, with the fastest growth.
　　It can be seen that under the stimulus of the total railway fixed asset investment of 800 billion yuan, a more benign survival and development environment will be provided for construction machinery enterprises. In this major shakeout of the construction machinery industry, the surviving enterprises will gradually resume the pace of steady growth. The steady and slow market recovery trend will not bring too many surprises, but there is still hope to promote the recovery of the entire construction machinery industry.