Recently, rumors that officials from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development confirmed that "apart from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the Ministry will allow local governments to adjust purchase restriction policies" have drawn widespread attention from all sectors of society.
　　The rumor has not yet been authoritatively confirmed. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has not made a public response to the report.
　　In the view of several industry insiders interviewed, simply dividing two-way regulation into first-tier cities and second- and third-tier cities does not conform to the reality of the property market and the requirements of classified regulation.
　　Yesterday Xinhua News Agency published an article stating: "Just over a year ago, the goal of regulating real estate was still to bring housing prices back to a reasonable range. Yet when housing prices really began to turn downward, local governments were unable to face it 'calmly.' Entering the market at low prices and quickly clearing inventory have now begun to become methods for many development enterprises to cut off an arm to survive. Now that the market has finally returned to its established track, policymakers should maintain a bit of basic composure regarding rises and falls."
　　At least 10 cities cannot relax
　　Since the purchase restriction policy began in 2010, a total of 45 cities across the country have implemented property market purchase restrictions. Under the current property market pattern, which cities cannot relax purchase restrictions?
　　At the very least, apart from the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, cities such as Xiamen and Nanjing, where price increases remain relatively fast, are still far from being ready to discuss loosening purchase restrictions.
　　"There are at least about ten." Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst at Centaline Property, told reporters.
　　For example, the changes in residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 18th show that among new commercial residential housing, Xiamen and Nanjing had the highest increases, rising 0.4% month-on-month. Among them, Xiamen has led the country for the fourth consecutive month this year. According to the April 100-city housing price index released by the China Index Academy, the city's housing price reached 19,495 yuan per square meter in April, still higher than Guangzhou, a first-tier city.
　　"Now some projects outside Xiamen Island are also holding promotional activities, but there has been no substantial price cut like in Hangzhou." A person from Xiamen World Union Properties told the reporter that Xiamen's supply is too small; there is basically no land left on the island, and off the island, as soon as a plot comes out, everyone scrambles for it, so Xiamen's supply remains tight.
　　According to public materials, Xiamen's land supply plan for 2013 was expected to transfer 62 plots. In the end, 48 land parcels were actually transferred, of which residential building area was only 1.3616 million square meters, less than one-third of the original plan. According to the 2014 land supply plan, 26 commercial and residential plots are planned to be transferred, with a total area of about 5 million square meters. Even if this year's land supply plan is fully implemented, plus the area of sellable new residential housing in 2013, it can at most meet only one year of market demand.
　　Li Youhua, a member of the Xiamen Municipal CPPCC and director of the Real Estate Research Institute of Jimei University, told the reporter that under Xiamen's current property market situation, there is absolutely no need to loosen the purchase restriction policy, and higher authorities will not allow Xiamen to loosen it. On the contrary, while continuing to strictly implement purchase restriction regulation, Xiamen should also increase residential land supply to meet market demand so that housing prices can be more stable.
　　He said that housing prices in Fuzhou, another major central city in Fujian, are also relatively high. Apart from unsold large units in some cases, Fuzhou's overall supply-demand ratio does not have major problems, so it has not reached the point of needing a bailout.
　　Nanjing's situation is somewhat similar. In March and April this year, Nanjing's month-on-month increase, like Xiamen's, led the country.
　　Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Qi Ji said during this year's Two Sessions that China will continue classified regulation of the property market this year and increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing, especially small- and medium-sized units.
　　Li Youhua analyzed that the two-way regulation and classified regulation proposed by the state this year are based on city-specific policies. Because each city differs greatly, whether regulation should be relaxed requires attention to short-, medium- and long-term risks. Short-term risk mainly depends on the supply-demand ratio, medium-term risk mainly on the inventory cycle, and long-term risk mainly on land supply. In some cities where these indicators all carry relatively high risk, restrictions can be appropriately loosened.
　　For first-tier cities and second-tier cities such as Xiamen and Nanjing, "if fully relaxed, prices will continue to surge."
　　Some localities take detours to "loosen"
　　Since the beginning of this year, voices of "bailing out the market" have emerged one after another in some cities with relatively high inventory. Statistics from the research department of Centaline Property show that as of recently, more than 10 cities have been rumored to be bailing out the market, among which 6 cities have already clearly implemented policies.
　　As the property market continues to cool, more than 30 cities nationwide are expected to have the expectation and possibility of relaxing regulation.
　　Li Youhua said this round of adjustment is clearly different from two or three years ago. Previously, as soon as a locality loosened purchase restrictions, it would immediately be stopped. But this time, adjustments such as Nanning's are no longer minor tweaks; purchase restrictions have basically been loosened, and such policies have not been stopped. This is precisely in line with the guiding principles of this round of classified regulation.
　　Wang Chengping, deputy general manager of the Guizhou company of China Railway Real Estate, said that in Guiyang, for example, the scope of purchase restrictions is mainly within the First Ring Road, and there are almost no projects within the First Ring Road, so such relaxation of purchase restrictions will not have much impact on the market.
　　According to statistics from the research center of Centaline Group, among the more than 40 cities currently under purchase restrictions, only 16 restrict purchases across the entire city, while most restrict purchases only in central urban areas or within the inner ring road. Therefore, relaxation of the scope of purchase restrictions can include targeted fine-tuning of the objects and goods subject to restrictions. In actual implementation, the narrowing of the scope of purchase restrictions will also significantly affect the intensity and effect of the restrictions and drive transactions in surrounding areas.
　　Zhang Dawei said that directly issuing a document to cancel purchase restrictions would cause relatively large backlash. But for many second- and third-tier cities implementing purchase restrictions, the restrictions were not strict to begin with. Therefore, in this round of loosening, local governments also do not need to explicitly issue documents to directly cancel purchase restrictions; instead, they can take a detour to loosen them.
　　For example, Nanning's market bailout policy, on the grounds of promoting the integration of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, treats registered-resident households in Beihai, Fangchenggang, Qinzhou, Yulin and Chongzuo within the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as Nanning registered-resident households for purchasing homes in Nanning. Such reasons and approaches are easily imitated by other cities.