Some are bullish, others bearish; the debate among real estate tycoons over the future direction of the housing market has never ceased. Recently, the “speech controversy” of Vanke Vice President Mao Daqing once again pushed the theory of a housing market crash to the forefront of public opinion, and also prompted Yu Liang, Ren Zhiqiang, and other real estate industry celebrities to speak out. On one hand, Vanke President Yu Liang warned that “the real estate industry has entered the second half”; on the other hand, Ren Zhiqiang, known as “Ren the Cannon,” expressed a bullish view that “if you don't buy a house in 2014, you'll have to wait another 30 years.” The heated debate among real estate tycoons has made the future direction even harder to predict.

　　Mao Daqing's Speech Draft Goes Viral; Vanke Accused of Betting Against the Housing Market

　　On May 1, a speech draft by Vanke Vice President Mao Daqing at an internal salon began to circulate widely online. The text used detailed and powerful data to argue three core points: the impact of anti-corruption on the high-end market, oversupply in some cities, and tightening bank credit. The views conveyed in the 10,000-word speech, such as “bearish on the industry, national real estate will decline,” were quickly amplified by public opinion, and for a time, Vanke, the leading real estate company, became the bellwether of those betting against the housing market.

　　But soon Vanke Group issued a statement saying that the information in the text did not represent the personal views of Vanke or Mao Daqing, and that some content was fabricated. Mao Daqing himself also responded, saying he was only warning of market risks. According to reports, after this “Mao Daqing speech draft” spread, Mao Daqing immediately called Yu Liang to protest, saying that the outside world had misinterpreted his speech and turned his risk warning in a non-public setting into a bearish view of the industry.

　　This is not the first time Vanke has encountered such an incident. Reports say that as early as 2008, Vanke was surrounded by public opinion due to a document titled “Speech by the Main Person in Charge of Vanke Group at the Songshan Lake Meeting.” The main content of the speech also involved a bearish judgment on the market and called for daring and courage to cut prices.

　　Yu Liang Responds to “Bearish Theory”: Cautiously Optimistic, Actively Responding

　　Regarding the claim that Vanke is bearish on the housing market, Vanke President Yu Liang also made a “post-event statement,” saying that Vanke faces the future real estate market with a “cautiously optimistic, actively responding” attitude, and there is no such thing as being bearish.

　　It is reported that in the first four months of 2014, Vanke's revenue totaled 9.497 billion yuan, a result that is not ideal, down more than 30% year-on-year. This decline in sales is not unrelated to the rumors that Vanke is bearish on the housing market.

　　However, Yu Liang still defended his “favorite general” Mao Daqing, saying: “We have expressed this attitude on many occasions. From the perspective of warning of risks, I agree with some of the views. The industry has entered the second half, and enterprises must fully understand the possible market risks and actively respond, which is necessary.”

　　Ren Zhiqiang Strongly Refutes “Bearish Theory”: China Has No Real Estate Bubble

　　When Mao Daqing's speech incident sparked heated discussion about a housing market crash, Ren Zhiqiang spoke out to refute the bearish theory: China has no real estate bubble.

　　“The price-to-income ratio in the United States is only 4.3. Is that considered too high? But why did the bubble burst? The book believes the reasons for the bubble are: first, the tax deduction policy for home purchases caused housing prices to be too high; this may be the opposite of China. Second, personal loans with lowered lending standards were provided to low-income families; this is also the opposite of China. Third, education; fourth, housing prices are not included in CPI; fifth, supply restrictions. No evidence of a Chinese bubble can be found.” Ren Zhiqiang said on Weibo on May 6.

　　Prior to this, Ren Zhiqiang had expressed similar views. In his view, the decline in real estate sales growth this year is not terrible; against the backdrop of urbanization, the overall situation of the real estate market will not change. Other media reports say that recently, at a discussion meeting, Ren the Cannon made another shocking statement: if you don't buy a house in 2014, you'll have to wait another 30 years.