Where will the hundreds of millions of newly urbanized people go?

　　On April 24, the Chinese Academy of Sciences' China Center for Modernization Research offered a suggestion: the suburbs of major cities.

　　The National New-Type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) proposes that by 2020 the urbanization rate of the resident population should reach about 60%, an increase from the previous 53.7%. To this end, efforts should be made by 2020 to grant urban residency to approximately 100 million rural migrant workers and other resident populations.

　　He Chuanqi, director of the CAS Center for Modernization Research, pointed out that urbanization in developed countries worldwide has also gone through two stages: first development in the main urban areas of major cities, followed by development in the suburbs.

　　In European countries, for example, the suburban population currently accounts for about 50% of the total, with some as high as 68% and others as low as 44%. In China, however, the suburban population accounted for only 8% of the national total in 2010.

　　He Chuanqi suggested that in the next stage China should formulate a development strategy for the suburbs of major cities. In the future, major cities will be the main force absorbing the bulk of new urban population, and these people will mainly live in the suburbs. To this end, the proportion of suburban population in major cities could be set at 13% by 2020 and rise to 50% by 2050.

　　"The population in the main urban areas of major cities has already bid farewell to the stage of rapid growth. According to international practice, the suburbs have become the new space for absorbing population," he said at the press conference for the release of the 2013 China Modernization Report held that day.

　　CAS Proposes Urbanization Roadmap

　　The National New-Type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) proposes that by 2020 efforts should be made to grant urban residency to approximately 100 million rural migrant workers and others.

　　In addition, through the renovation of urban shantytowns and urban villages, the living conditions of about 100 million people should be improved; and about 100 million people should be guided toward nearby urbanization in the central and western regions.

　　However, there is still no answer as to whether these people will become urban citizens in major cities, megacities, medium-sized cities, or small cities. Xu Zhengzhong, a professor at the Department of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Governance, pointed out that how to accommodate the new urbanized population in the future is indeed a problem. For instance, India's vigorous development of rural areas obviously cannot solve the problem.

　　A reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald learned that there are multiple paths to urbanization in the world, including the major-city-led type and the small-city-led type. The former is represented by Japan and South Korea, where major cities such as Tokyo and Seoul account for more than 40% of the national population. The second is represented by Germany, where the population of major cities accounts for less than 20% of the total population.

　　He Chuanqi pointed out that it is difficult for China to follow Germany's example and rely on small towns as the main force for accommodating the newly added urban population. Although small towns have been vigorously developed for many years, in reality the fastest-growing areas are still major cities.

　　"Small towns cannot provide that many employment opportunities," He Chuanqi said.

　　At present, the suburbs of major cities in developed countries are the main carriers of new urban population. For example, between 1950 and 2010, the structure of the world's urban system underwent tremendous changes, with the proportion of population in major cities rising and that in small cities declining. In the United States, for example, the suburban population accounted for 7% in 1910 and reached 50% in 2000.

　　Modern Transportation System

　　In the "2013 China Modernization Report Recommendations" released by the CAS on April 24, it is suggested that China should implement a new urbanization strategy in the next step, which requires formulating three urban plans: a modernization plan for the urban system, a modernization plan for infrastructure, and an urban environment plan.

　　Transportation is naturally a key focus of supporting construction for suburban urban development. At present, because population and industry are overly concentrated in the urban area, Beijing faces a prominent traffic congestion problem. Tongzhou, planned as Beijing's sub-center, actually has housing but no industry, making it a veritable "bedroom community."

　　What is different in developed countries is that commerce, entertainment, industry, scientific research, and education are dispersed across various city suburbs. In the United States, about 26% of industry is concentrated in rural areas, 26% is distributed in urban layouts, and 47% is distributed in the suburbs. This actually has reference value for solving problems such as population congestion, excessively high housing prices, and water resource shortages in megacities like Beijing.

　　The above report also recommends that all main urban areas with a population of more than 1 million should build subways, especially requiring convenient transportation conditions for connections with the suburbs.

　　Li Liancheng, a researcher at the Comprehensive Transportation Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that urban transportation should pursue speed, safety, and efficiency. The development of private cars conforms to the trend of people pursuing comfortable and personalized travel modes, but it has indeed caused urban traffic congestion.

　　This requires good urban transportation development strategies, such as building an integrated transportation system. This includes both the connections among various modes of urban transportation and the connections between urban transportation and external transportation. "Particular emphasis should be placed on building comprehensive transportation hub systems to achieve relatively convenient and easy transfers," Li Liancheng said.