For people in the construction industry, there are now congratulatory phrases and jokes for the holidays too. Those who want to buy a home say “soon have a house”; engineering staff can wish each other “soon have projects” or say things like “a large batch of projects will soon break ground”; those hoping to enter the construction machinery industry can wish for “soon have an excavator,” and so on. For next year's construction machinery sales, one could say “soon have markets and customers.” Will the 2014 Year of the Horse wishes really come true right away?

　　The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the “World Economic Yellow Book” in Beijing on December 25, forecasting that the global economy will continue to grow at a medium-to-low speed in 2014, slightly above the 2013 level. The Yellow Book holds that in 2014, world economic growth still faces many uncertain factors. The Year of the Horse economy will only improve slightly; “instant wealth” can be achieved by a few, while for most it is merely a moon in the water.

　　The Bank of China's latest 2014 macroeconomic and financial outlook report forecasts that next year both the investment growth rate and sales growth rate of the real estate market will slow, and the number of cities with falling housing prices may increase.

　　Fixed asset investment is expected to continue growing in 2014 (with a somewhat lower growth rate), which will provide strong support for demand growth in building materials products, but the profitability of the building materials industry depends more on the supply-demand situation of the industry. In 2014, the pressure from new capacity in the glass industry will remain considerable; demand growth for glass products may be constrained by the slowdown in real estate growth, and the supply-demand situation is not optimistic. It is expected that the growth rate of cement demand may decline somewhat in 2014, by 3-5%.

　　At present, although the state has launched a series of projects in railways, highways, and infrastructure construction, sales of major construction machinery products are basically declining. Even Qi Jun, vice chairman of the China Construction Machinery Association, believes the industry has slid to the bottom and will now undergo a slow recovery process. It is expected that total construction machinery product sales will only improve by October 2014, but each product will respond differently; some products are still declining year-on-year in the market.

　　China's excavator market demand in 2013 is estimated at 110,000 units, basically flat with 2012, and market demand in 2014 is expected to reach a scale of 120,000 units.

　　In fiscal year 2014, China's hydraulic excavator sales are expected to increase from 54,000 units in fiscal year 2013 to 60,000 units in fiscal year 2014, while mini excavator sales are expected to rise from 15,000 to 19,000 units.

　　As can be seen from the above, “soon have XX” in the construction industry is not optimistic, unless the economy improves right away.