China's direct and indirect steel exports are expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2014. Even if they decline somewhat from 2013, the equivalent crude steel volume will still exceed 100 million tons, accounting for about one-sixth of the country's actual crude steel output during the same period.

　　China's steel exports will remain high in the new year, mainly thanks to the recovering and improving world economic environment. Although there are still some risks to global economic growth in 2014, such as the debt crisis, overall the extremely accommodative monetary policies widely implemented by countries around the world are playing a positive role, and the world economy may show a comprehensive recovery in the new year. While the United States and Japan continue their recovery momentum, eurozone economic growth will reach 1.3%, reversing the stagnation of the previous year. Economic recovery in developed countries in Europe and the United States will certainly bring momentum to global economic growth. Since the second half of 2013, housing markets in Europe and the United States have become more active, and global manufacturing has improved markedly. In October, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2, the highest since May 2011, with data from Europe and the United States particularly striking. In October, the US Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index jumped to 57.3, and the new orders index rose to 63.6; China's purchasing managers' index in October was 51.4, also better than expected. These data indicate that the world economy is moving toward a comprehensive recovery, and demand for steel will revive.

　　The acceleration of the global economic recovery is already evident in China's latest export data. According to customs statistics, China's exports in November 2013 surged 12.7% year on year, far exceeding the previous expectation of 7.1% growth. Although a low comparison base was a factor, it also precisely proves that global consumption conditions are improving year on year.

　　Moreover, stronger global infrastructure construction in the future, especially in developed countries, will also improve the demand environment for China's steel exports. According to a forecast by the well-known international institution McKinsey, to sustain world economic growth, global infrastructure investment will need to reach at least US$57 trillion by 2030, including road, power, and water-related projects, generating huge demand for Chinese steel, including both direct and indirect steel exports, which should not be underestimated. Although the release of this demand is a long process, it will also be reflected to some extent next year.

　　The steel industry is a heavily polluting and energy-intensive industry. Vigorous Chinese steel exports in 2014 and beyond will inevitably drive continued expansion of domestic steel production and capacity, thereby creating greater pressure on the environment and energy consumption and harming the healthy and sustainable development of China's economy. Relevant departments therefore need to plan ahead and prepare contingency plans. Raising environmental standards and strengthening environmental enforcement, which will substantially increase the environmental costs of steel and force steel enterprises to go global and participate in global steel industry mergers and acquisitions, should become an important option.