On March 1, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's Purchasing Managers' Index for February. Data show that the manufacturing PMI in February was 51.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and has remained above 51.0% for five consecutive months. Meanwhile, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and has remained in the relatively high prosperity range of 54.0% and above for five consecutive months.

Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the manufacturing sector continued to maintain a stable and improving development trend, mainly showing four characteristics. First, market demand in manufacturing rebounded and production became more active; second, domestic and international demand improved somewhat, and imports and exports continued to stabilize and improve; third, new growth drivers continued to gain momentum, and the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries maintained good development momentum; fourth, enterprises' confidence in future development continued to strengthen.

Zhu Qibing, chief macro analyst at BOC International Securities, said that the data show that after the temporary factors of the Spring Festival were eliminated, the economy rose steadily and enterprise expectations improved. Compared with the same period in history, the manufacturing PMI in February remained the highest since 2012, and the economic rebound was relatively strong; from the trend perspective, the 12-month moving average of the manufacturing PMI maintained an upward momentum, and the trend of steady manufacturing expansion remained unchanged.

By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 53.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the pace of expansion accelerated somewhat; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 50.5%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and remained above the threshold for two consecutive months; the PMI for small enterprises was 46.4%, unchanged from the previous month, and continued to remain in the contraction range.

“In the economic rebound, the divergence among enterprises continues. Large enterprises have benefited more from this round of economic growth characterized by rising industrial product prices,” Zhu Qibing said.

A macro analyst at China Merchants Securities said that the February PMI data show a relatively large increase in production and inventories, while the pace of demand expansion was slower than that of production and inventories, indicating that expectations played an important role. The current situation continues, and further improvement in demand is still needed. However, judging from cement prices, investment demand did not expand significantly in February. Therefore, we believe that the economy in the first quarter will continue the good momentum of the end of last year.

Deng Haiqing, global chief economist at JZ Securities, said that the degree of this round of economic recovery once again exceeded market expectations. The reasons for this round of economic recovery are the result of combined forces from multiple aspects.